I invited all the girls who ran at semistate (all 617 who had times reported at indianarunner.com) to squeeze into my computers this weekend for the easiest race they will ever run. I let SPSS ogle their statistics and predict their state times based on semi-state and state times (least-squares regression, if you are interested), and then ranked all the girls and computed team totals. Below are the results. (First number is predicted rank, number in parenthesis is actual rank, and final number is team score.) I did not both to try to break ties, which would occur when two runners in the same semistate had the same reported time. Northrop performed much better than their semi-state result said they would. It does appear that if you are the 40th best team in the state you can get to the state finals as long as you are in the right semi-state. On the other hand, you could be the 14th best team in the state and not make it. 1 (1) Valparaiso 144 2 (3) LawrenceNorth 222.5 3 (2) Chesterton 255 4 (4) Northridge 256 5 (6) Cathedral 345 6 (7) ColumbusNorth 356.5 7 (8) Carmel 392.5 8 (5) Dekalb 431 9 (9) Concordia 586 10 (10) BishopChatard 589.5 11 (14) Penn 596.5 12 (11) WestLafayette 633.5 13 (13) MichiganCity 662 14 HamiltonHeights 672.5 15 Portage 711 16 Western 740 17 Westfield 787 18 Noblesville 861.5 19 (15) Homestead 864 20 Jefferson (Laf) 878 21 FranklinCentral 911.5 22 CenterGrove 970 23 (12) Northrop 1003 24 HamiltonSoutheast 1009 25 PerryMeridian 1038.5 26 NorthCentral 1072 27 Angola 1129 28 (16) BloomingtonSouth 1142.5 29 NewPrairie 1175 30 (20) SilverCreek 1195.5 31 Harrison 1206 32 JayCounty 1223 33 Plainfield 1243.5 34 Northwestern 1260.5 35 (17) Northview 1260.5 36 Winchester 1270 37 Carroll 1277 38 Goshen 1278 39 Maconaquah 1290 40 WarrenCentral 1385.5 41 NorthSide 1438 42 (18) Jasper 1450.5 43 (19) HeritageHills 1452.5 44 BloomingtonNorth 1459 45 Rushville 1462 46 Andrean 1469.5 47 EastNoble 1478 48 Munster 1498.5 49 TellCity 1523 50 FloydCentral 1541 51 VincennesLincoln 1542 52 Hobart 1555 53 Southport 1565.5 54 Plymouth 1580 55 Delta 1607 56 Richmond 1630 57 TerreHauteSouth 1636 58 LakeCentral 1643 59 TerreHauteNorth 1711.5 60 Yorktown 1732 61 Rensselaer 1734 62 Clay_S_B 1786 63 EvansvilleCentral 1799.5 64 Connersville 1824 65 CulverAcademies 1871 66 EvansvilleMaterDei 1876.5 67 Castle 1922.5 68 BedfordNorthLa 1975.5 69 HuntingtonNorth 1998 70 EvansvilleMemorial 2019.5 71 ForestPark 2038 72 Clarksville 2048 73 SouthDearborn 2093 74 Lowell 2160.5 75 Southwestern 2212.5 76 CentralCatholic 2271.5 77 CrawfordCounty 2272.5 78 Kokomo 2287 79 NewCastle 2389 80 OldenburgAcademy 2599